In early 2026, heavy rainfall and increased reservoir levels were observed across Turkey. However, this temporary optimism is not supported by long-term hydrological analyses. Turkey, located in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, deeply feels the effects of climate change. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns in recent years have made the hydrological balance fragile, with the 2024-2025 period recorded as one of the driest phases in the last half-century. Water stress in major cities like Istanbul and Ankara has reached serious levels. Even the rainy period in 2026 provided only limited recovery in many regions. Soil moisture data reveals a significant loss of moisture across Turkey between 2015-2025, especially accelerating during the summer months. This situation increases water stress on plants and makes forests more vulnerable to fires. The observation of moisture loss trends in the Black Sea Region shows that the fire risk is not limited to the Mediterranean region alone. The concept of drought memory indicates that soils and ecosystems carry the effects of past droughts for a long time. Therefore, annual increases in rainfall do not eliminate the chronic effects of drought. Climate change also creates a paradox by increasing biomass in forests, which raises the risk of fires. The large fires around Bursa, Bilecik, and Eskişehir in 2025 are concrete examples of this risk. Drought, ecosystem degradation, and fire regimes form a mutually reinforcing cycle. This situation shows that addressing Turkey’s climate risks solely from a disaster management perspective is insufficient. The COP31 meeting could be an important opportunity for Turkey to reassess its climate adaptation strategy. In the future, holistic management of hydroclimatic risks and integration of water, forestry, and disaster policies will be critically important. Drought in Turkey is no longer a temporary meteorological event; it stands before us as a multi-layered and persistent hydroclimatic crisis.
