Russian pressure increased in Armenia election

Armenia enters the June 7 elections amid tensions with Russia, US support, and the possibility of peace with Azerbaijan. The outcome for Pashinyan will influence Moscow's impact...

Scraper SystemJune 02, 2026, 07:12 PM

Armenia is heading to the parliamentary elections on June 7 at a critical juncture. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power after the Velvet Revolution eight years ago and is known for his pro-European stance, is preparing to be re-elected for a third term. The election campaign is shaped not only by domestic political debates but also by severe tensions with Moscow. On May 27, US President Donald Trump openly supported Pashinyan, giving his full and unconditional approval. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that if Armenia continues to deepen its ties with the European Union, the country could face a scenario similar to Ukraine. Moscow's pressure did not stop there. Russia recently withdrew its ambassador from Yerevan. During the pre-election period, Russia appears to have used various economic tools to increase its influence over Armenia. Russia imposed an embargo on Jermuk-branded mineral water, popular in Armenia. This ban was then extended to include flowers, vegetables, and strawberries. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mariya Zakharova stated that the 2013 agreement allowing duty-free exports of natural gas and petroleum products to Armenia could also be suspended. Stefan Meister from the German Council on Foreign Relations noted that classic Russian pressure tactics are back before the elections, with threats emerging through trade, so-called health reasons, and gas supply. Laurence Broers from Chatham House said that although this method seems like an outdated playbook, it can still be effective due to Armenia's economic dependence. It is reported that Armenian businessmen connected to Russia also play a prominent role in Moscow's influence efforts. One of Pashinyan's strongest rivals is billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who made his fortune in Russia and now leads the Strong Armenia Party. However, experts believe that oligarch circles have not significantly influenced election results so far. Broers said that unlike Georgia's de facto ruler Bidzina Ivanishvili, no similar figure has emerged in Armenia. Armenia's dependence on Russia is not limited to politics. Russia's share in the country's economy has increased in recent years. Tigran Grigoryan, director of the Yerevan-based Regional Democracy and Security Center, emphasizes that this dependence spans many key sectors. Railways are at the forefront. Since 2008, Armenian railways have been operated by the state company Russian Railways under a 30-year concession. Pashinyan previously proposed transferring this right to neutral countries like Kazakhstan or the United Arab Emirates, but Moscow firmly rejected these suggestions. The energy front remains unchanged. About 40% of the country's electricity is supplied by the only nuclear power plant operated by the Russia-Armenia joint company. The plant's fuel is entirely supplied by Russia. Armenia plans to build a new nuclear power plant with US support and shut down the existing Soviet-era reactor to reduce dependence on Russia. Options for natural gas are even more limited. Due to closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia currently has no reliable supply route outside Russia. Nevertheless, a trend of distancing from Russia in defense is noticeable. Armenia has gradually reduced its participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and suspended its membership in 2024. The Pashinyan government diversified military procurement, making agreements with India, France, and other partners outside Russia. These steps are seen as part of Yerevan's effort to reduce dependence on Moscow in security. The most critical election topic is the possibility of peace with Azerbaijan. A peace agreement to end decades of conflict between the two countries has yet to be signed. Although conflicts effectively ended in 2023 with Azerbaijan taking control over Nagorno-Karabakh, a permanent solution has not been achieved. In his campaign under the slogan "Real Armenia," Pashinyan calls to focus the country's future not on claims over Nagorno-Karabakh but on the economic and political future of its citizens. Analysts say that if Pashinyan gains a constitutional majority, the peace process could accelerate. In that scenario, constitutional changes demanded by Azerbaijan for a peace agreement might also come up. A smaller election victory could slow the process and prolong Armenia's strategic dependence on Russia for many years. Trump's support for Pashinyan is also interpreted in this context. The US-backed transportation corridor called TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) aims to create a new route between Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nakhchivan, and Turkey. On May 26, a framework agreement for this corridor was signed between Washington and Yerevan. If realized, the project could establish an important route bypassing Russia and opening a new trade path between Europe and Asia. However, experts say TRIPP cannot truly progress without a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Ultimately, the elections will determine not only Pashinyan's political future but also whether Armenia can distance itself from Russia. Experts commonly agree that despite external pressures, the country has not completely escaped Moscow's influence. However, a strong surge by pro-Russian forces is not expected in this election.

Russian pressure increased in Armenia election

Armenia enters the June 7 elections amid tensions with Russia, US support, and the possibility of peace with Azerbaijan. The outcome for Pashinyan will influence Moscow's impact...