The new ceasefire reached between Lebanon and Israel, brokered by the US, has brought back the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran dossier. However, questions remain about how and when the agreement will be implemented on the ground.
Iran sees the establishment of a ceasefire in Lebanon as one of the conditions for any peace agreement with Washington. Tehran has recently signaled that it could provide direct support to its ally Hezbollah if Israel continues or escalates its attacks in Lebanon.
Uncertainty over the enforcement of the ceasefire
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the new ceasefire would come into effect within 24 hours after approval by the relevant parties. Aoun's remarks were interpreted as a reference to Hezbollah, which is not a direct party to the agreement.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the Israeli army would continue its attacks in Lebanon for now and would not withdraw from the south. This statement increased doubts about the durability of the declared ceasefire.
It was reported that Esmail Kaani, commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, stated that the minimum demand is Israel's withdrawal to the lines held before the start of the war. This demand highlights Tehran's emphasis on changes in the field position after the ceasefire.
Conflict expands in the region
Clashes between Hezbollah and Israel reignited on March 2 when the group fired in support of Iran in response to US-Israeli attacks. Despite several ceasefires declared by Washington since April, the war has continued.
This development came after a period of rising tensions in the Gulf. Iranian forces carried out reciprocal attacks in the Gulf region on Wednesday; this was considered one of the most intense conflict periods since a separate ceasefire that halted a large-scale US-Israeli bombardment in early April.
Kuwaiti officials reported damage to airport facilities and diplomatic missions in Kuwait due to the attacks, with one person killed and more than 60 injured. The Iranian side claimed it did not target the airport and attributed the destruction to US interceptive missiles that missed their targets.
The US military stated that Iranian drones deliberately targeted the airport. Iranian media also claimed that the Revolutionary Guards struck the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and a US airbase. The US Central Command announced that these bases were not hit and that Iran's ballistic missiles also missed their targets.
The strait line and oil prices
The US Central Command reported conducting a new defensive strike in southern Iran, targeting missile launchers and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines, as well as carrying out attacks on Kish Island near the strait.
Last week, Iran and the US indicated they were close to a preliminary agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait. However, the two sides have not yet formalized the agreement; more complex issues may be deferred.
This situation caused a brief easing in oil prices. The expectation that the Lebanon ceasefire could open a diplomatic path between Washington and Tehran reversed some of the recent price increases.
Trump and Tehran's conditions
US President Donald Trump emphasized the pressure to lower fuel prices and said progress in negotiations with Iran could happen as early as this weekend. Trump also stated that efforts are being made to separate the reopening of the strait from the conflict in Lebanon in ongoing talks.
Iran demands not only an end to the conflicts in Lebanon for a possible agreement but also access to billions of dollars in oil revenues, exemptions from sanctions on crude oil exports, lifting the US blockade on ports, and gaining influence over the strait.
Iran's religious leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said the enemies were defeated on the battlefield and are now trying to create internal division. A message read on behalf of Khamenei called for unity, harmony, mutual trust, and calm. The Iranian leader took office after his father was killed at the start of the war and had not appeared on camera.
Trump said his priority is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
