The deepening political crisis after the court's annulment decision in CHP did not remain just an internal party debate. The scenarios discussed in Ankara indicate that this tension may be related to the upcoming constitutional amendment process expected to come back on the agenda.
At the center of the debate is the parliamentary arithmetic. The required number of votes for the new constitution has brought the question of how possible alliances might form back to the forefront.
Parliamentary arithmetic is decisive
For constitutional amendment proposals to be taken to a referendum, the support of at least 360 deputies in the Parliament is required. For the proposal to be accepted directly without going to a referendum, 400 deputies must vote "yes."
In Parliament, AKP has 275, MHP 46, HÜDAPAR 4, DEM Party 56, and DBP 2 deputies. On the CHP side, it is estimated that the number of deputies close to Kılıçdaroğlu is 27.
Associated with Erdoğan's candidacy debate
It is stated that the constitutional amendment topic on the agenda is mentioned together with discussions about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's ability to run again. It is expressed that the People's Alliance acts as a united body during this process.
Among the topics discussed in Ankara is how DEM Party, which supported Özgür Özel after the congress tension and annulment decision in CHP, will approach the new constitution proposal.
Number calculation comes to the fore in a possible scenario
In a scenario including DEM Party, it is calculated that the number required for Erdoğan could drop to 17 deputies. This situation takes the new constitution debate beyond a mere technical legal issue and places it directly at the center of the political equation.
In CHP, the call for a congress by 111 deputies after the annulment decision revealed the extent of the division within the party. The assessment that there are at most 27 deputies alongside Kılıçdaroğlu forms the basis of the backstage calculation.
Thus, the internal tension in CHP and the possible constitutional negotiation in Parliament seem to converge in the same equation. Political circles talk about the debate not being limited to internal party balances in the upcoming period.
