The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced that the El Niño weather event has gained strength over the past month and that when it peaks in the October-December period, the likelihood of it 'ranking among the largest' is very high.
According to the CPC's latest update, the probability of a 'very strong' El Niño occurring between October and December is 81 percent. An event of this magnitude would rank among the largest El Niño events in historical records dating back to 1950.
The 'very strong' definition means an index value of 2.0 degrees Celsius or more above average. The CPC also gave a 97 percent chance that the event will last until early spring 2027.
El Niño typically triggers cascading effects globally. These include drought and drier conditions in Australia, wetter winters in East Africa and the southern US, and generally higher global temperatures.
The CPC noted, 'Even the strongest El Niño events do not produce the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can significantly increase the odds in favor of expected outcomes.'
In a specific area of the equatorial Pacific known as the Niño 3.4 region, sea surface temperatures are currently 1.2 degrees Celsius above average. Together with warming subsurface waters and changing wind and pressure patterns, 'the ocean-atmosphere system reflects a strengthening El Niño.'
Although El Niño typically peaks between November and February, the sharp rise in temperatures usually comes later. Combined with human-caused climate change, the last El Niño contributed to 2023 being the second hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest year ever.
