The world is dangerously close to the 1.5°C warming limit set in the Paris Agreement; according to a comprehensive new report, human-caused warming will reach 1.37°C in 2025. An analysis by more than 70 scientists from 56 institutions in 17 countries shows that if emissions continue at current levels, the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded around 2030.
Published today (June 11) in the journal Earth System Science Data, the fourth edition of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) tracks the key metrics showing how fast and why the climate is changing. A clear picture emerges: the world is warming at an accelerating pace, almost entirely due to human activities.
"Our study shows that greenhouse gas emissions are at their highest level ever, predominantly caused by the burning of fossil fuels," said Dr. William Lamb, a senior researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. "The good news is that the solutions are already in our hands.
By investing in renewable energy and electrification, governments can both reduce emissions and build cleaner, more reliable, and more secure energy systems.
The world's carbon budget will be exhausted in three years. The carbon budget – the total amount of CO2 that can still be released into the atmosphere while keeping warming below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels – is calculated at just 130 billion tons as of the beginning of 2026. At current emission levels, this budget will be completely exhausted in about three years.
The 1.5-degree limit forms the cornerstone of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the international accord aimed at preventing the most devastating impacts of the climate crisis. Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 56.8 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in 2024, primarily from burning fossil fuels.
Atmospheric concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – have increased since 2019; CO2 concentration has now risen to 425.6 parts per million.
"In short, we are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, which raises greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, trapping more and more heat and destabilizing the world," said Dr. Matt Palmer, a scientist at the UK Met Office.
The report also reveals that the Earth's energy imbalance – the difference between heat entering the Earth and heat radiated back into space – has more than doubled in recent decades, reaching a record level today. This means the planet is storing heat faster than at any time since modern measurements began.
"The Earth's energy imbalance is growing rapidly, causing changes in every component of the climate system, including ocean and land warming, permafrost thaw, ice loss, and sea level rise," said Dr. Karina Von Schuckmann of the French research institute Mercator Ocean International.
Sea levels are rising, waters are warming. Global sea level set another record in 2025; the total rise since 1901 has reached 23 centimeters, and the rate of increase is accelerating. The oceans are absorbing most of the excess heat; average sea surface temperatures reached the second-highest level ever recorded last year.
A new indicator added to this year's report reveals the scale of marine heatwaves: the number of affected days more than tripled globally between 1991 and 2025. In 2025 alone, the world experienced 65 days of marine heatwave conditions that damage ecosystems, threaten fish stocks, and disrupt the ocean-atmosphere systems that regulate the Earth's climate.
On land, the picture is no different. Average maximum land temperatures in the last decade were nearly half a degree higher than the previous decade, driving extreme heat to unprecedented levels worldwide. "Almost all of the warming in the last decade is caused by human activities," said Dr. Samantha Burgess of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
"The impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems are already being felt globally, and these impacts will accelerate as temperatures continue to rise." The scientists behind the report also warn of a less visible risk: the global datasets used to monitor these changes are themselves under threat.
Budget cuts, including the Trump administration's decision last year to shelve the US State Department's global air quality monitoring program, are creating dangerous gaps in the evidence base underpinning climate science and policy.
"Without this data, making assessments in the future will be much more difficult, precisely when we need urgent climate action more than ever," warned Dr. Chris Smith of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
