The 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between China and North Korea remains in force after 65 years. It contains a mutual defense clause requiring assistance if one party is subjected to armed attack, and it is China's only formal military alliance.
The treaty's importance was reaffirmed by North Korean Prime Minister Pak Thae Song's three-day visit to Beijing this week. The visit took place as part of celebrations for the 65th anniversary of the agreement, signed on July 11, 1961, by then Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and North Korean leader Kim Il Sung.
China's priority: stability
For China, North Korea's stability is more important than the potential refugee influx from a collapse scenario and the prospect of a U.S.-aligned unified Korean Peninsula. Beijing wants the North Korean regime, which acts as a buffer along its 1,400-kilometer border, to survive while also avoiding war.
This dilemma leads China to support United Nations sanctions at times while opposing steps that could destabilize the regime. At the same time, as North Korea's largest trading partner, it continues to provide an economic lifeline to Pyongyang.
North Korea's calculus: options
North Korea, for its part, avoids total dependence on Beijing. The comprehensive strategic partnership agreement signed with Russia in 2024, which includes a mutual defense provision, has expanded Pyongyang's room for maneuver.
Russia offers North Korean leader Kim Jong Un advantages such as military technology, energy resources and access to hard currency, a situation that is both beneficial and unsettling for China. Deepening military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang could encourage Kim's nuclear ambitions and create further instability in Northeast Asia, which Beijing views as its backyard.
Regional tensions and the U.S. factor
The strengthening of U.S. military cooperation with South Korea and Japan, including joint exercises and intelligence sharing, brings Beijing and Pyongyang closer together. Tokyo's increased defense spending and the presence of tens of thousands of U.S. troops in South Korea are viewed by China as an 'encirclement effort'.
North Korea, meanwhile, regards these moves as war preparations, and Beijing is focused on presenting a strong united front with Pyongyang.
Future: an alliance of necessity
The alliance is not expected to remain the same over the next 65 years. While North Korea grows more assertive by deepening its ties with Russia, China is globally stronger but stands to lose more from instability on the Korean Peninsula.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's failure to mention nuclear weapons at all during his last visit to Pyongyang shows that Beijing is softening its criticism to avoid pushing Kim further toward Russia.
While standing by North Korea against Western hegemony, China must steer Pyongyang away from behaviors that isolate it from the international community. This delicate balance will shape the future of the alliance.
